“It would be ridiculous to get to that point and then start to try to figure out what to do about it,” MacDonnell said.īecky Mitchell, the director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, declined an interview request from CPR News. He said Udall’s projections show that it’s time for the states to iron out exactly how they plan to respond to a water delivery shortage. Larry MacDonnell is a senior fellow at the Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources at CU Boulder who has focused on Colorado River law for more than 20 years. Other water and legal experts don't know how a formal water delivery shortage would play out. Otherwise, he said, “all bets are off on how it gets resolved.” He said states should work now to reduce water use or come to another agreement before there’s a violation of the Colorado River agreement. “Frankly I think you probably never, ever want to get there,” Udall said. If that trend continues for just a few more years, Udall said the dropping reservoir levels could trigger a formal water delivery shortage. Bureau of Reclamation suggest it's unlikely Lake Powell will gain any significant amount of water in the next two years.
Lake Powell is the reservoir where upper-basin states store the water they send downstream to the lower basin. Department of the Interior cut water use in the lower basin and sent more water downstream from reservoirs in the upper basin. Each hit their lowest levels on record this year, which caused the federal government to take emergency action for the first time. The two largest reservoirs in the United States are filled with Colorado River water. This is where Lakes Powell and Mead come in. A formal water delivery shortage triggered during that time is much sooner than most expected - and it’s unclear what would follow. The photo on the right was taken in October 2021.
SIBELIUS 8 WILL NOT ACTIVATING FULL
The photo on the left was taken in 2000 when Powell was at full pool. Michael Elizabeth Sakas/CPR News Brad Udall, a water and climate scientist, shows a before-and-after photo comparison of an overlook of Lake Powell on his iPad on November 5, 2021. Udall’s projections for the Colorado River aren’t a certainty, but if climate, drought and water conditions continue as expected over the next five years, the amount of water delivered from the upper-basin states could drop below the agreed-upon 10-year running average amount of about 8.2 million acre-feet per year for the first time. “That will be a day of reckoning for the upper basin,” Udall said.
The result could mean upper-basin states, including Colorado, are forced to cut off some water users to make sure there is enough water in the river to flow downstream.
That could trigger a formal water delivery shortage and what’s known as a “compact call” for the first time. If the river keeps drying up, that agreement could soon be broken. That agreement was amended in the 1940s to ensure river water also reached Mexico. Part of that agreement requires states in the upper Colorado River basin - Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico - to keep a certain amount of water in the river to ensure the flow reaches states in the lower basin, including Arizona, California and Nevada.